Why Did Iran Attack Pakistan? Examining the Roots of the Balochistan Conflict

Over the past week, long-simmering tensions between Iran and Pakistan have erupted into open conflict after Iran launched missile strikes on alleged militant targets within Pakistan‘s borders. On Monday, Iran fired missiles into Pakistan‘s southwestern Balochistan province, claiming to target the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl which it blames for attacks within Iran. At least two children were killed in the strikes according to Pakistani officials.

Pakistan responded with fury, condemning the attack as a violation of its sovereignty. On Thursday morning, Pakistan launched retaliatory strikes into Iran‘s Sistan-Baluchestan province just across the border, reportedly killing at least nine people. The tit-for-tat attacks have sparked fears of an escalating conflict between the two countries, already at odds over a range of issues. So why did Iran attack Pakistan and what is driving this sudden flare-up in violence?

A History of Mistrust and Tensions

Iran and Pakistan share a 900 km border and a complex, often acrimonious relationship dating back decades. Tensions have flared periodically, driven by sectarian differences (Iran is majority Shia while Pakistan is mostly Sunni), strategic rivalry, and disputes over cross-border militancy.

In the 1980s, Pakistan supported Sunni mujahideen fighters battling Iran‘s ally the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, which Iran saw as a threat. More recently, Pakistan‘s deepening ties with Iran‘s major rival Saudi Arabia have rankled Tehran. Iran was also opposed to Pakistan‘s support for the Taliban in Afghanistan in the 1990s.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has long accused Iran of supporting Baloch separatist groups operating in its restive Balochistan province, especially after India and Iran began cooperating on the Chabahar port project just 70 km from Pakistan‘s Gwadar port developed with China. In 2019, Pakistan officially lodged a protest with Iran over its alleged support for groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA).

Balochistan: The Eye of the Storm

At the heart of the current conflict is the border province of Balochistan itself. The rugged, arid region is Pakistan‘s largest province, rich in mineral and energy resources like natural gas, coal, copper and gold. But it is also Pakistan‘s poorest and least developed province, where a large majority of the ethnic Baloch population lives in abject poverty and deprivation.

For decades, Baloch nationalist and separatist groups have waged a low-level insurgency against the Pakistani state, demanding greater autonomy or outright independence for the Baloch homeland. Groups like the BLA and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) have launched numerous attacks on Pakistani security forces and state infrastructure in the region.

Here are some key statistics highlighting the unrest in Balochistan:

• Over 5,000 Baloch have been killed by Pakistani security forces and around 20,000 have gone missing since 2000 according to Baloch human rights groups
• From 2003 to 2012, nearly 3000 people were killed in over 2000 incidents of violence and unrest in Balochistan according to data from the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies
• In 2019, Balochistan saw 110 attacks that killed 180 people according to data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal
• Despite accounting for 40% of Pakistan‘s land mass, Balochistan has just 6% of its total population and 3.7% of its GDP according to government data

The Pakistani military has responded to the insurgency with a heavy hand, and rights groups have accused them of forced disappearances, torture and extrajudicial killings of Baloch activists and civilians. But many Baloch say the roots of their alienation lie in the state‘s neglect and exploitation of the province.

"Balochistan has a literacy rate of just 33% for women and 52% for men, compared to a national average of nearly 60%," noted Baloch activist Mama Qadeer. "Just a third of households have access to electricity and only half have access to clean drinking water."

Despite billions in resource wealth extracted from the province, including $1.4 billion worth of coal and $450 million of gold reserves according to government figures, little of it seems to benefit the local Baloch population. Chinese-funded development projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have also led to displacement and marginalization of Baloch communities.

"Balochistan provides 36% of Pakistan‘s natural gas yet only 6% of gas royalties are given to the province," said Baloch economist Kaiser Bengali. "94% of Balochistan‘s oil and gas revenue is taken by Islamabad."

Iran‘s Accusations and Regional Power Play

It is against this backdrop that Iran fired missiles into Balochistan this week, claiming it was targeting the bases of Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice). The group, which draws support from the ethnic Baloch community in Iran‘s southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan province bordering Pakistan, has carried out dozens of attacks on Iranian security forces in recent years.

In 2019, a Jaish al-Adl attack killed 27 members of Iran‘s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), prompting Iran to warn Pakistan that it reserved the right to respond if it continued to provide a safe haven to the group‘s fighters fleeing across the border. Pakistani officials denied supporting the group and accused Iran of stirring up trouble in Balochistan.

Iran‘s Sistan-Baluchestan province, like Pakistan‘s Balochistan, has a history of separatist insurgency and neglect by the central government. The majority Sunni Baloch population faces systemic discrimination and limited economic and political opportunities. Militant groups like Jaish al-Adl have exploited this alienation and youth unemployment to recruit fighters.

Now, Iran seems to be sending a message to Pakistan and flexing its muscles in the region. Just a day before attacking targets in Balochistan, the IRGC fired a volley of missiles into Iraq‘s Kurdistan region, alleging "Zionist" targets were present there. Iran also launched drone strikes against Islamic State militants in eastern Syria the same week.

This spate of attacks on three of its neighbors reveals an increasingly aggressive posture from Iran, even as it faces economic turmoil at home due to crippling US sanctions. Amid stalled talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal that would provide sanctions relief, Iran may be projecting strength to boost its negotiating position and deter rivals like Israel and Saudi Arabia.

"The attacks demonstrate Iran‘s reach in the region and show it will respond to any threats or provocations with force," said Ali Vaez, Iran expert at the International Crisis Group. "But it‘s a risky gambit that could backfire if it leads to a wider escalation."

Pakistan‘s Furious Response Raises the Stakes

Pakistan reacted with outrage to Iran‘s strikes on its soil, lodging diplomatic protests and summoning Iran‘s ambassador in Islamabad. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called it an "unacceptable" violation of Pakistan‘s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

On Thursday, Pakistani forces fired back with strikes against "terrorist hideouts" in Iranian border towns, killing at least nine people according to Iranian media. Iran‘s Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks and urged Pakistan to take action against what it called "terrorist groups organized and supported by Iran‘s enemies."

Pakistan‘s military said the retaliatory strikes were meant to signal its capability and resolve to protect its borders. But they have significantly raised the stakes of the conflict, sparking fears of an all-out confrontation between the neighbors if further provoked.

"Islamabad‘s military muscle flexing against Iran, itself a result of Tehran‘s provocative attacks on Pakistan‘s soil, can only be a recipe for further disaster," wrote Nasim Zehra, a fellow at Harvard University‘s Asia Center. "The two neighbors with a long and complicated history need immediate de-escalation."

Implications of an Escalating Conflict

An escalating conflict between Iran and Pakistan in Balochistan risks further destabilizing an already volatile region. The area borders Afghanistan, where the Taliban takeover has led to a resurgence of regional militancy, especially from the Islamic State. An influx of weapons and fighters could exacerbate the security situation.

The unrest also threatens China‘s ambitious Belt and Road investment plans in the region, including the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its crown jewel, the Gwadar port just 70 km from Iran‘s Chabahar port being developed with Indian investment. Baloch militant attacks on Chinese interests could derail these projects.

More broadly, an Iran-Pakistan war risks drawing in rival regional powers like Saudi Arabia, which backs Pakistan, and India, which has friendly ties with Iran. It could also further sour Pakistan‘s relations with the US, given Washington‘s tensions with Tehran and Islamabad‘s drift towards China in recent years.

Perhaps most worryingly, a wider conflagration threatens to engulf the long-suffering Baloch people on both sides of the border. Already bearing the brunt of state neglect, discrimination and violence, they risk becoming cannon fodder and collateral damage in the crossfire between Iranian and Pakistani forces if the conflict spirals out of control.

Moving Forward: Dialogue, Not Destruction

To prevent such a disastrous scenario, there is an urgent need for de-escalation and dialogue between Iran and Pakistan. Regional players like China, which has strong ties with both countries and has already offered to mediate, should step up diplomatic outreach to bring them to the negotiating table.

Multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which both Iran and Pakistan are members, could provide a potential platform for talks. The international community, including the United Nations, should also push for restraint and engagement between the rival neighbors.

But sporadic border clashes and cycles of attack and retaliation will likely continue as long as the core drivers of conflict in Balochistan remain unaddressed. A lasting solution requires Iran and Pakistan to not only peacefully resolve their disputes but also take meaningful steps to address the grievances fueling militancy and separatism on their respective sides of the border.

This should include increasing investment in development, infrastructure and public services to reduce poverty and inequality in the region, ending repression and human rights abuses against Baloch activists and civilians, and providing the Baloch people more equitable access to and control over the benefits of their resource-rich land.

Resolving such deep-rooted issues will be neither easy nor quick. But it is essential for achieving durable stability in a region that has already seen far too much conflict and bloodshed. More than the strategic or ideological agendas of rival states, it is the safety, dignity and prosperity of the Baloch people that should be the priority.

Moving in that direction will require visionary leadership, political will and compromise from all sides. The alternative of an endless cycle of escalation and retaliation is too devastating to contemplate. For the sake of the long-suffering people of Balochistan, Iran, Pakistan and their allies must choose dialogue over destruction.